Standard Chartered Bank report predicts India's per capita income to surge to $4,000 by 2030, a remarkable 70% increase.

Standard Chartered Bank's report predicts a substantial 70% surge in India's per capita income, reaching $4,000 by fiscal 2030 from its current value of $2,450 in fiscal 2023. This remarkable growth is expected to elevate India to the status of a middle-income economy, boasting a GDP of $6 trillion, with more than half of it being fueled by household consumption.

The report highlights the upward trajectory of India's per capita income and GDP over the years, with significant increases observed from fiscal 2001 to fiscal 2021, rising from $460 to $2,150. It is projected to reach $2,450 by fiscal 2023.

External trade is identified as the primary driver of growth, estimated to nearly double to $2.1 trillion by 2030, while household consumption is forecasted to soar to $3.4 trillion, equivalent to the current size of the entire GDP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's commitment to reaching a $5 trillion economy further adds to India's economic aspirations, positioning it as the third-largest economy globally.

The report envisions nine states rising to upper-middle-income status, with a per capita income of $4,000, with Gujarat expected to lead by fiscal 2030. States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are projected to have a per capita income below $2,000 even in fiscal 2030.

India's demographic advantage, with a higher share of the working-age population, is expected to drive economic growth through increased labor efficiency, capital deployment, and sustained development. However, the report warns that persistent negative growth in employment rates could hinder per capita real GDP growth. To ensure continued growth, the report emphasizes the importance of consistent reforms, macro stability, a healthy financial sector, corporate sector deleveraging, and increased public capex.

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